India has expelled a second Pakistani diplomat within a span of ten days. This move invokes the diplomatic principle of persona non grata and signals an escalation in a long-frayed bilateral relationship.
The declaration of a diplomat as persona non grata is one of the most serious forms of diplomatic protest. According to Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (1961), a host country can declare any member of a diplomatic mission unwelcome and require their departure without the obligation to explain its decision. Such actions are often retaliatory and signal a serious breakdown in trust.
On May 21, 2025, India expelled a second Pakistani diplomat in less than ten days, accusing him of engaging in activities that violated diplomatic norms. This move came shortly after the removal of another Pakistani official on May 13 for similar alleged misconduct. In a swift retaliatory step, Pakistan expelled an Indian High Commission staff member on May 22, further intensifying the ongoing diplomatic standoff between the two countries.
When Tensions Crossed Borders
The diplomatic expulsions come amid rising tensions triggered by the April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed 26 lives, including those of Indian and foreign tourists. India has blamed Pakistan-based militant groups for orchestrating the attack, prompting a series of retaliatory actions, including
- Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
- Closure of the Attari-Wagah border crossing.
- Withdrawal of SAARC Visa Exemption privileges for Pakistani nationals.
- Downsizing of diplomatic missions in both countries.
- Expulsion of Pakistani military advisors from New Delhi.
Pakistan has firmly denied any role in the Pahalgam incident and condemned India’s response as unilateral and provocative. As a result, diplomatic relations between the two nations have sharply deteriorated.
Political Calculations or National Security
Indian authorities have alleged that the expelled diplomat was involved in gathering sensitive information from Indian nationals, allegedly in exchange for money. Pakistani officials, however, have categorically denied these allegations, calling the expulsion baseless and a violation of diplomatic norms.
The lack of detailed evidence or official documentation from either side limits the ability to independently verify the specific allegations.
Experts from the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) and the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) have noted that such incidents, while not unprecedented, are indicative of deeper trust deficits between the two countries’ intelligence and diplomatic apparatuses.
Trust, Talks, and Tactical Moves
Timing is a significant factor. India is currently in a high-stakes general election, and national security remains a dominant electoral issue. On the other hand, Pakistan is dealing with its internal instability, including political unrest and economic challenges. Some observers suggest that Pakistan’s response to the expulsions may be more restrained due to its current vulnerability on the global stage, including ongoing IMF negotiations.
Implications and Broader Consequences
- Diplomatic Fallout: Continued expulsions may lead to a further downgrading of diplomatic ties. Already functioning without full-time High Commissioners in each other’s capitals since 2019, the relationship risks sliding into formal disengagement.
- Intelligence Operations: The expulsions underscore the persistent role of intelligence operations in India-Pakistan relations. If the accusations are accurate, it suggests an active presence of covert operations on both sides, raising concerns about internal security.
- Impact on Track-II Dialogues: Informal channels of communication, often spearheaded by academics, former officials, and peace activists, may suffer setbacks due to the charged atmosphere. Such dialogue initiatives are crucial in the absence of formal negotiations.
- Regional Diplomacy: The timing also coincides with growing regional alignment around China. India’s closer ties with the U.S. and Pakistan’s strategic dependence on China create further complexity in managing direct bilateral disputes.
Which Road Will They Take Now?
This incident was one of several Cold War-era diplomatic standoffs, where rival states frequently engaged in tit-for-tat expulsions. A recent case of Russia and several European countries expelling dozens of diplomats over espionage allegations (post-Ukraine invasion) offers a useful comparative framework.
India and Pakistan have a history of reciprocal diplomatic expulsions during times of heightened tension, most notably after the 2001 Indian Parliament attack and the 2016 Uri attack. However, the current situation is notably more severe, compounded by the suspension of key bilateral agreements, the closure of key border points, and heightened military readiness on both sides.
These expulsions highlight the deepening strain in India-Pakistan relations, rooted in long-standing disputes and exacerbated by recent acts of violence. The sharp decline in diplomatic engagement highlights the urgent need for renewed dialogue and trust-building initiatives to prevent further escalation and to safeguard regional stability.
Additionally, most democratic states have increasingly relied on persona non grata declarations without open war, using them as a measured yet firm tool to register discontent.
Symbolism, Strategy, and the Cost of Silence
Moving forward, both countries must weigh the long-term consequences of these actions against their immediate strategic or political gains. Such incidents risk hardening positions, deepening suspicion, and closing doors to eventual peace without a roadmap for diplomatic re-engagement.
In an increasingly volatile South Asian region, where both nations are nuclear-armed, the cost of mistrust is far too high for either side to bear.
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