The recent growth of the Agni-5 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was recently revealed, which can reportedly carry a 7,500 kg bunker-buster warhead. The missile is part of India’s Agni missile series, which has been around for a long time; however, this increase in payload is quite significant, which, based on credible defense sources, was intended to improve India’s strategic deterrence capabilities. While official details on the payload are lacking, credible sources suggest that this could enable the missile to deliver a large, bunker-penetrating warhead over a long range, potentially as far as 5,000 km.
Background and Development of Agni 5
Agni series missiles, developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), have been central to India’s deterrent since the development of Agni-1 in the 1980s. Agni-5 (ICBM) has a range of over 5,000 km; it is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The missile was test-fired for the first time in 2012, and many subsequent test-firings have taken place. The canisterised version of Agni-5 also allows for faster launch.
The reported upgrade, the capability to deliver a 7,500 kg bunker buster warhead, also implies a possible redesign of the missile to take on a heavier payload. Bunker buster warheads are usually employed to destroy hardened and deeply buried underground military facilities. On the assumption that these capabilities are true, it would significantly enhance India’s capability for offensive attacks against hardened targets, perhaps very deep within adversary territory.
Strategic Implication
At the core of India’s nuclear doctrine is the principle of credible minimum deterrence. the development of the heavyweight bunker buster not only emphasizes India’s commitment to this concept of deterrence, but it also lays the foundation for what could be characterized as counterforce capabilities, as it would seek to target a state’s enemy military choses rather than its urban environments.
This decision could be contextualized as China builds up its missile and underground military infrastructure, and is concerned with Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons. If India can strike hardened underground bunkers, that could provide India with a preemptive capability in a worst-case conflict.
That aside, there is a danger in upgrading that it does not alter the strategic stability of South Asia. It could spur an arms race or heightened alert postures between competing states, particularly if secretly conducted. China, for instance, has had concerns in the past regarding India’s development of Agni-5, considering that the Agni-5 has the range within which to strike most of China, including cities like Shanghai and Beijing, may not reflect either an aspirational project or a hypothesized scenario being misreported as news.
Implications for India
The Agni-5 upgrade, if developed and confirmed, could:
- Change regional security dynamics and potentially motivate China and Pakistan to reassess their deterrence postures.
- Increase India’s countering ability to react and take action to new regional threats, such as underground command centers or nuclear storage facilities.
- Internationally, scrutinize from arms control and non-proliferation organizations, especially since India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Domestically, the development may foster a sense of national pride and, given the current election cycle, government buy-in.
If the ability of the missile to carry a 7,500 kg bunker buster warhead was enhanced, as has been reported, it would represent a major step forward for India’s strategic effectors. The rider is that the report remains to be confirmed; we’re therefore exercising the upgrade reported on a cautious note since there is no confirmation from an authoritative official or independent sources. The potential upgrade indicates an adaptive personality characteristic in South Asian security, in addition to the artificial barrier of stability between deterrence and escalation. In this adaptive sphere, the crucial variable of transparency, restraint, and diplomacy needs to be taken into account as regional actors evolve their arsenals.
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