The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections are set to be a significant event with major political shifts underway. The competition is particularly intense between the ruling Mahayuti alliance, led by Eknath Shinde’s faction of Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the opposition coalition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). These alliances are racing to finalize candidates and fortify their bases, aiming to sway Maharashtra’s vast and diverse electorate.
Mahayuti Alliance: Shinde’s Strong Position in the BJP-led Coalition
The Mahayuti alliance, formed after Eknath Shinde’s split from Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena in 2022, has evolved into a formidable coalition of BJP, Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction. As the election season progresses, Shinde’s faction is pushing to establish itself as the dominant Shiv Sena, while Shinde himself aims to secure his position as the chief ministerial candidate. On October 20, the BJP released its first candidate list, selecting contenders for 99 seats, predominantly sitting BJP MLAs or influential figures in crucial constituencies. This allocation reflects the BJP’s intent to consolidate its strongholds and facilitate Shinde’s leadership by retaining existing allies and creating new ones.
Shinde’s faction also recently released its second list of candidates, which includes prominent figures like Milind Deora, who is set to challenge Aditya Thackeray, Uddhav Thackeray’s son. The decision to field Deora against Thackeray underscores Shinde’s intent to directly contest the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s leadership in Mumbai. Moreover, in recent public appearances and party meetings, top BJP leaders, including Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, have signalled support for Shinde’s chief ministerial aspirations.”Our CM is here,” said Fadnavis, pointing to Shinde during a press event, highlighted Shinde’s leadership within the alliance and hinted at his likely return as Chief Minister if the Mahayuti secures victory.
Opposition Struggles: Discord within the MVA
In contrast to Mahayuti’s consolidated front, the MVA faces internal divisions, mainly revolving around seat distribution among coalition partners. Tensions have escalated, particularly in Vidarbha, a strategically significant region, where Congress leader Nana Patole has been reluctant to allocate seats to Shiv Sena (UBT). This resistance stems from Congress’s apprehension that conceding key seats to the Thackeray faction may dilute its influence in the MVA, especially in regions where it has historically had substantial support. The disagreement over a few critical constituencies has strained relations within the MVA and raised concerns about a potential split.
Reports indicate that senior Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders were recently summoned to Delhi for discussions, signalling the high stakes involved. As disagreements continue, the MVA is now faced with the challenge of presenting a united front to voters while addressing competing internal priorities. If unresolved, these differences may affect the MVA’s prospects of posing a strong opposition to the Mahayuti in the upcoming election.
Political Context and Key Issues
The 2024 Maharashtra elections are set against a backdrop of significant political realignments and regional issues that resonate with voters across the state. For instance, Shinde’s leadership has focused on economic initiatives, infrastructure development, and social welfare programs to build a reputation as a “people’s leader.” His strategy has been to highlight the Mahayuti’s developmental agenda, especially its commitment to modernizing infrastructure and expanding welfare programs.
The Mahayuti alliance has also capitalized on recent initiatives like farm loan waivers, housing schemes, and investments in urban and rural development. Meanwhile, the BJP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena have consistently portrayed the MVA as indecisive and internally divided, emphasizing that the Mahayuti offers more stability and effective governance. The BJP’s candidate selection process has underscored its objective to maintain control in regions where it has substantial influence, as well as those newly aligned under Shinde’s leadership.
For the MVA, on the other hand, the primary agenda has been to criticize Mahayuti’s governance on issues such as unemployment, inflation, and the state’s agrarian crisis. MVA leaders have underscored the struggles of farmers, rural unemployment, and the slow progress of infrastructure projects in rural regions. They aim to appeal to voters by promising a more inclusive government and highlighting perceived shortcomings in Shinde’s leadership. However, the alliance’s internal disunity on candidate selection and seat sharing risks weakening this message.
Key Figures and Battleground Constituencies
The 2024 elections are expected to be highly personalized, with major figures like Aditya Thackeray and Milind Deora directly contesting each other. The Deora-Thackeray contest has drawn widespread attention as it epitomizes the ongoing battle between Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT). This particular contest in Mumbai, where both leaders have strong support bases, is seen as a litmus test for both factions’ appeal in urban constituencies.
Another key player in this election is Shrikant Shinde, Eknath Shinde’s son and Lok Sabha MP, who has been active in mobilizing support for his father. At a recent rally in Dadar, slogans in support of Shinde as the “people’s CM” were prominently displayed, and influential leaders reiterated their backing for his leadership. This grassroots campaigning has added to Shinde’s momentum and reinforced Mahayuti’s portrayal of Shinde as a reliable, effective leader.
Election Outlook
The upcoming Maharashtra elections appear to be tightly contested, with the Mahayuti alliance benefiting from organizational cohesion, strategic candidate placements, and Shinde’s increasing prominence. The MVA, on the other hand, faces the dual challenges of balancing internal dynamics and effectively communicating its stance on key issues. While the Mahayuti’s message of stability and development has resonated in urban regions, the MVA’s focus on rural issues and social equity may appeal to voters in agricultural and economically disadvantaged regions.
