A Warmer Winter Overall?
The India Meteorological Department has made a forecast that the winter from December to February will be warmer than normal. This continues a larger trend witnessed over that year, wherein India saw above-normal minimum temperatures for about 11 months, with some historical breaking. The October minimum temperatures this year have seen a departure of as much as 1.78°C above the normal.
The IMD has pointed out that such anomalous warming, which would normally bring about colder and wetter conditions in North India, is caused by the suppressed state of La Niña. Another major contributor is the occurrence of lesser western disturbances, resulting in below-normal snowfall, thereby lessening the intensity of several cold waves.
Evidence of Local Cold Waves
Even though the overall weather has been warming, some cold waves have still swirled through North India. Delhi remained shiversome on December 13 for the coldest morning in three years, with the mercury dipping to 3.2°C. Such cold snaps, however brief, reflect localized weather phenomena, driven by the wind and fog conditions.
However, these phenomena are far fewer than and, in magnitude, much less serious than in other years. The IMD predicts there may be 2-4 cold wave days this winter, especially when compared with the seasonal norm.
Compared to Historical Records
When compared with historical data, the current conditions are intriguing. Delhi’s early December temperature of 3.2°C pales in comparison to the record low of 1.1°C in December 1935. Similarly, past winters often featured prolonged cold waves, such as in 2012 and 2020, when North India saw temperatures consistently drop below 4°C for extended periods.
Recent years, however, have seen a departure from such patterns. December 2022 and 2023 recorded minimum temperatures of 4.9°C and 5°C, respectively, illustrating a gradual warming trend even during the coldest months.
Climate Change
A warmer winter in the year 2024 needs to be considered in light of the ever-changing climate as the dynamics of North India are quite apparent. There have been years where global weather patterns have erupted with sudden anomalies and 2023 is one such year refrain from conveying that North India will be exempt as All the indicators trends seem to signal a regional index as well. Warming baseline temperature coupled with erratic patterns of rainfall might alter the way cool weather is introduced and robust spells could replace normal patterns of cooling.
This year’s winter is also shaped by the lack of precipitation. November 2024 had only seen 55% precipitation which made it one of the lowest in the past two decades which inhibited the greenness of the soil and the cooling effect.
What Lies Ahead?
December 2024 is expected to remain warmer than average, with minimum temperatures unlikely to dip to record-breaking lows in most regions. The IMD predicts a gradual warming trend in western India and stable temperatures in the north. However, isolated cold wave conditions are still likely in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Delhi, offering brief respites of winter chill.
A Mixed Winter
While North India may not break cold records in 2024, the region’s weather underscores the duality of climate impacts warmer overall trends interspersed with pockets of intense cold. These conditions challenge perceptions of “normal” winter, requiring adaptive strategies for agriculture, health, and infrastructure.
For now, winter enthusiasts might cherish fleeting cold mornings, as they could become rarer in the years to come.
