With the assembly elections scheduled in Maharashtra for 2024, the analysts predicting a result too close to call in a highly competitive race. No party is expected to capture victory smoothly, given the detailed process of political absorption in Maharashtra. Our internal assessments, including polls, seat-sharing arrangements, and voter sentiments, indicate a tightly fought battle between the two major coalitions-the ruling Mahayuti (BJP-led) alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.
Key Contenders: Mahayuti vs. MVA
The Mahayuti alliance, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shivsena faction led by Eknath Shinde, and Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is becoming a strong contender. The BJP would contest 152 seats, with a projection of winning between 95 and 105. The ruling group has certain advantages incumbencies and promises of continuing development, construction of infrastructure, and ‘welfare’ schemes, including the Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana that aims at female voters statewide.
On the other hand, MVA-Sena (UBT)-NCP led by Sharad Pawar-Sp has its progressive agenda. They have reached a seat-sharing agreement wherein Congress will contest in 101 constituencies, and Uddhav’s Sena will contest in 96. Despite its factionalism and internal strife, the MVA remains a decisive challenger in urban Maharashtra and among traditional Shiv Sena voters.
Election Dynamics
Maharashtra has an estimated total assembly strength of 288 seats, and under such a fractured political environment, a coalition government seems unavoidable. Both alliances are racing neck and neck, but MVA is expected to fight intensely in urban constituencies where some parts of the electorate may be alienated by the policies of the BJP. Besides, on the lines of Maratha reservations and farmer distress, MVA will able to consolidate support among rural and backward communities.
One other possibility, which will be a big determinant of voting patterns, will be how the incumbent government is received. Specific voters, women, and youth, will respond well to infrastructure programs put forward by the Mahayuti Alliance in the welfare of women. However, farmers’ issues and economic dislocation caused by inflation concern voters against whom MVA will be certain to capitalize on any dissatisfaction against the government.
Predictions and Seat Projections
After reviewing the latest data and internal assessments, it is predicted that the Mahayuti coalition is likely to win a plurality of seats, securing between 130 and 150 seats. This would give them an edge over the MVA, which is projected to win approximately 110-130 seats.
